Farmscape for October 27, 2020
Agri-Food Economic Systems warms Canadian agriculture is at risk from shifting global agri-food trade policy.
An agri-food policy note released by Agri-Food Economic Systems looks at the effects of shifting global agri-food trade policy on Canada's agri-food sector and what needs to be done to minimise any negative impacts while capturing opportunities.
The policy note examines the situation that confronts Canada in relation to the agri-food trade interests of the U.S., of China, and of other countries.
Research Lead Dr. Al Mussell notes Canada is vulnerable to sudden stoppages in trade by China and one of the issues of concern will be the trade between the U.S. and China.
Clip-Dr. Al Mussell-Agri-Food Economic Systems:
One of the matters of timing that is coming up of course is the U.S. China Agreement.
It runs for 2020 and 2021, it was only a two year agreement.
I expect that the U.S. believes that it is in their interest to have that agreement renewed.
It provides preferential access to the Chinese ag and food market for the United States.
One of the things that's interesting is the trade promotion authority that President Trump is operating under and the next President will operate under as well ends in July of 2021.
So there is some pressure to try and get that trade promotion authority renewed so that agreement can be renewed.
As Canadians, we have to worry about, what if it doesn't get renewed?
Again, thinking about pork, the U.S. pork industry has expanded at such a rate that, if they didn't have an export market in China, we would be probably very concerned about U.S. pork exports to Canada and also U.S. exports of pork to third countries and the price depressing effect.
We have to watch out for that very carefully.
Dr. Mussell warns we could also see further increases in U.S. domestic price supports to deal with pricing issues which would make things far worse for Canada.
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Bruce Cochrane.
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