Farmscape for November 15, 2004 (Episode 1645) Sask Pork predicts fairly stable live hog prices during the fourth quarter in Western Canada, in spite of the import duty on live Canadian hogs entering the US.
A 14.06 percent preliminary antidumping duty on the majority of live Canadian weanlings, grower pigs and slaughter hogs entering the United States came into effect October 20th.
Sask Pork Industry and Policy Analyst Brad Marceniuk says Canadian pork prices have held steady heading into November. Clip-Brad Marceniuk-Sask Pork
The basis level between Canadian domestic hog prices and US hog prices do not appear to have changed much since October 20th.
A combination of existing slaughter weight hog contracts in Canada and a strong belief that the dumping case will be thrown out in March 2005 is believed to be keeping Canadian domestic slaughter weight hog prices stable.
The demand for pork and live hogs continues to be strong as we move through the fourth quarter of 2004.
Slaughter numbers in the United States have also appeared to have stabilized over the last eight weeks and have averaged just over 1.1 percent above 2003 numbers compared to three percent for the first nine months of 2004.
While the rising Canadian dollar has been negative on Canadian hog prices, the increasing US cash price in recent weeks has kept Canadian domestic hog prices from falling.
Continued strong demand for pork and no significant increases in US slaughter numbers will be key factors in maintaining strong hog prices over the next few months.
Potential changes in the North American beef trade over the next few months may also influence where pork demand and pork prices will move over the next few months. Marceniuk says we can expect some normal seasonal drops in hog prices as we move further in November and December.
He says, while domestic hog prices are stable right now, we can expect the duty to result in some downward movement over the next few weeks. He estimates prices could drop by up to 20 dollars per 100 kilograms.
For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane. *Farmscape is a presentation of Sask Pork and Manitoba Pork Council |