Farmscape for February 10, 2005  (Episode 1721)

Sask Pork says, while a combination of factors will play a role in determining the value of live hogs over the next several months,  prices are expected to continue profitable during the remainder of first and throughout the second quarter of this year.

North American hog prices continue to be relatively profitable with the current SPI index 100 hog price averaging in the low 140 dollar range per 100 kilograms.

Sask Pork Industry and Policy Analyst Brad Marceniuk says, with the nearby lean hog futures for April, May and June in the 74 to 77 dollar range, North American hog prices should continue to be relatively profitable over the next several months.

Clip-Brad Marceniuk-Sask Pork

There's several factors which will influence where hog prices will go in North America over the next little while.

Continued strong global demand for pork will be important in maintaining these current strong hog prices.

Other factors to look at in Saskatchewan include the exchange rate and the final ruling on the antidumping duty on Canadian live hogs entering into the United States.

The exchange rate has been fluctuating over the last several weeks.

In the last week, with the rise in the US prime rate, the Canadian dollar has actually weakened slightly which has been positive for Canadian cash hog prices.

The final ruling on the antidumping duty on Canadian live hogs entering into the United States in March of 2005 will influence if basis levels go up or down between the United States and Canadian cash hogs.

Marceniuk says the scheduled March 7th border opening to live Canadian cattle exports could also affect hog prices.

However he's confident prices will remain profitable throughout the remainder of the first half of this year.

He estimates Saskatchewan index 100 hogs will average in the range of 145 dollars per one hundred kilograms for the remainder of the first quarter of 2005 and average from 150 to 160 dollars per 100 hundred kilograms during for the second quarter of 2005.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.

       *Farmscape is a presentation of Sask Pork and Manitoba Pork Council